Key Highlights
- The leaked US draft plan proposes handing over Ukrainian-controlled Donbas regions to Russian control.
- Ukraine would need to cut its armed forces to 600,000 personnel and enshrine in its constitution a non-NATO membership stance.
- The plan includes significant economic incentives for Russia, with $100 billion of frozen assets proposed for investment in Ukraine’s reconstruction.
Leaked US Draft Plan to End Russia’s Control Over Donbas
The leak of a draft peace plan between the United States and Russia has sparked intense debate. The document, which proposes handing over Ukrainian-controlled areas of the Donbas region to de facto Russian control, is causing concern among Ukrainians.
Key Points of the Draft Plan
According to the leaked document, Ukraine would be required to withdraw its forces from certain regions in Donetsk Oblast and recognize a demilitarized buffer zone. This move could be seen as particularly contentious given that these areas are home to at least 250,000 people, including the strategically important cities of Slovyansk, Kramatorsk, and Druzhkivka.
Additionally, Ukraine would have to cut its armed forces to 600,000 personnel, a reduction that could infringe on Ukrainian sovereignty. While this number might seem acceptable in peacetime, it is unlikely to be accepted by Kyiv given the ongoing conflict and the significant buildup of Russian forces along the border.
Security Guarantees and NATO Membership
The draft plan also includes vague provisions for security guarantees, which fall short of a NATO-style Article Five commitment. Ukraine has stated that it will not accept any limits on its right to self-defense or on the size or capabilities of its armed forces. The document does propose significant economic incentives for Russia, with $100 billion in frozen assets being invested in US-led efforts to rebuild and invest in Ukraine.
EU Access and NATO Exclusion
The plan suggests that Ukraine would be eligible for EU membership but not NATO. This proposal is likely to face strong resistance from Kyiv, as joining both organizations is enshrined in its constitution. The document also proposes that Russia be re-integrated into the global economy and invited back into the G8 group of powers, a move that seems unlikely given Putin’s current status under an arrest warrant from the International Criminal Court.
Sanctions and Amnesties
The draft includes provisions for lifting sanctions to be agreed upon in stages, which Moscow may see as too slow. There is also a proposal for a “full amnesty” for all parties, but this would likely go down poorly with Kyiv and European capitals.
Implications of the Draft Plan
The draft document appears to offer significant concessions to Russia while leaving Ukraine with little room to maneuver. The aggressive timeline set by the US for Ukraine to agree to these terms has raised concerns among political analysts. While the plan may have some support in certain circles, it is unlikely to be accepted by Kyiv or most of Europe.
Ukrainian representative Khrystyna Hayovyshyn told the UN Security Council that there would never be any recognition formal or otherwise of Ukrainian territory temporarily occupied by Russia as Russian.
She also stated that Ukraine will not accept any limits on its rights to self-defense or on the size or capabilities of its armed forces.
The draft plan seems to be work in progress, with some details no longer apparent after the leak. The European Union and Russia have not officially seen the document yet, indicating a lack of consensus on these proposals.
Conclusion
The leaked US draft plan offers a glimpse into potential future negotiations but is likely to face significant opposition from Kyiv and its Western allies. As the conflict continues, it remains to be seen whether such a proposal can gain traction or if more comprehensive solutions will be needed to end Russia’s control over Donbas.
