Key Highlights
- Tin prices have climbed to $36,086 per tonne by October 2025 due to supply disruptions.
- Myanmar’s Man Maw mine has been suspended since August 2023 for a resource audit.
- Investor positioning suggests an expected tightening of refined tin supply.
- The Democratic Republic of Congo is emerging as the largest supplier of tin concentrates to China.
Market Disruption and Price Resilience
Tin prices have demonstrated remarkable resilience, with the London Metal Exchange (LME) three-month tin price reaching $36,086 per tonne by October 31, 2025. This mark is a significant increase from April 2025 when it was below $30,000 per tonne. The price climb has been driven by persistent supply disruptions, primarily from Myanmar’s Man Maw mine, which was suspended in August 2023 for a resource audit.
Myanmar’s Man Maw mine, once a key supplier of tin concentrate to China, has not resumed operations despite initial hopes.
By September 2025, there were no signs of any ramp-up activity at the site. The suspension has reduced tin concentrate exports from Myanmar by 77% year-on-year, totaling just 14,200 tonnes through July 2025. This significant disruption has forced a reevaluation of global tin supply dynamics.
Investor Sentiment and Market Positioning
Investors have responded to the supply shortfall with strategic positioning on the London Metal Exchange (LME). As of early September 2025, net long positions stood at 4,515 contracts, equivalent to 22,575 tonnes. This is the highest level since March when tin prices spiked to a three-year high of $38,395 per tonne.
The sharp decline in short positions to just 610 contracts further underscores investor confidence that supply constraints will persist.
These market movements indicate an expectation of tightening refined tin supply. Fundamentals such as reduced manufacturing indicators and fragile Chinese demand have not dampened investor interest. Instead, the geopolitical risks associated with supply chains are driving higher prices and encouraging diversification into alternative sources like the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC).
Emerging Supply Alternatives
The DRC has emerged as a critical player in global tin markets. Despite challenges such as security concerns, the country’s growing strategic importance is reflected in its rise as China’s largest source of tin concentrate through July 2025. The Democratic Republic of Congo’s potential is exemplified by Rome Resources plc, which is advancing the Bisie North Tin Project near Alphamin’s high-grade operation.
Rome Resources has deployed three drilling units to commence exploration in August 2025, with plans for further delineation and resource estimation.
The company emphasizes geological continuity and significant mineralization potential. CEO Paul Barrett highlights the project’s strategic importance: “The XRF niton has shown us that there is considerable tin here. This lies outside the geochemical soil anomaly so we think there’s a lot of scope now for the northeast flank of Montagoma.”
The DRC’s evolving policy environment, including recent agreements with Western investors and the United States, signals a positive shift in investor perceptions. As global supply chains recalibrate around these new jurisdictions, Rome Resources represents one of many early-stage projects that could capture incremental market share.
Conclusion
The tin market is characterized by structural tightness due to extended supply disruptions from Myanmar and other geopolitical factors like Indonesia’s clampdown on illegal mining. Investors are positioning for a tightening of refined tin supply, evidenced by high net long positions and strategic diversification into new sources such as the DRC.
As global demand continues to grow, driven by technological advancements and the energy transition, the structural reweighting of tin demand offers opportunities in jurisdictions with improving regulatory frameworks. Companies like Rome Resources are at the forefront of this evolving landscape, positioning themselves for future growth in a market already undersupplied at the concentrate level.
