Key Highlights
- Apple projected to surpass Samsung as the world’s largest smartphone maker for the first time since 2011.
- Shipments of iPhones are expected to grow by 10% in 2025, driven by demand for the iPhone 17 series and upgrade cycles.
- Samsung’s shipments are forecasted to increase by 4.6%, slipping from its top spot after a decade.
- Counterpoint Research predicts that Apple’s share of global smartphone shipments will reach 19.4% in 2025, while Samsung’s will be 18.7%.
The Smartphone Market Shifts: Apple to Top Samsung for First Time Since 2011
Apple is set to reclaim its position as the world’s largest smartphone manufacturer in 2025, according to a new report from Counterpoint Research. The findings suggest that global smartphone shipments will rise by 3.3% year over year in 2025, with Apple contributing significantly to this growth.
Apple’s Dominance
The strong performance of the iPhone 17 series is expected to drive a 10% year-over-year increase in shipments for Apple in 2025. This surge is part of a broader trend where consumers are entering their upgrade cycles following purchases made during the peak of the COVID-19 pandemic.
According to senior analyst Yang Wang, “The highly positive market reception for the iPhone 17 series, coupled with replacement cycles reaching an inflection point, will propel Apple past Samsung. In addition, 358 million second-hand iPhones were sold between 2023 and Q2 2025, indicating a significant base of consumers likely to upgrade in the coming years.”
Samsung’s Decline
While Samsung is expected to see robust growth with a 4.6% increase in shipments, this will not be enough to maintain its position as the global leader. The company’s shipments are forecasted to reach an 18.7% share of the market, down from its current top spot.
Yang Wang further explains that Samsung’s strategic shift towards the A series is aimed at bolstering its presence in emerging markets through stronger specifications and competitive pricing. In more mature markets, Samsung will focus on premium offerings to defend its market share against Apple’s resurgence.
Future Outlook
The report predicts that by 2029, Apple will retain its lead as the world’s leading smartphone manufacturer, benefiting from a strong base of consumer demand. Chinese manufacturers are expected to continue relying on overseas markets for growth and move into higher-priced segments with premium features.
Industry analyst Eric Revell commented, “This shift in market dynamics underscores the continued innovation and appeal of Apple’s products in a competitive landscape.” As we approach 2025, investors and consumers alike will be watching closely as these tech giants navigate their respective strategies to maintain or expand their global presence.
The news comes at a crucial time for both companies, with Apple looking to capitalize on renewed consumer interest post-pandemic and Samsung striving to maintain its market position through strategic product offerings in diverse markets around the world.
