Key Highlights
- The Environment Agency warns of a potential widespread drought in 2026 if winter is drier than normal.
- Average rainfall is crucial for England to avoid severe drought conditions by spring 2026.
- Drought impacts are expected across various sectors, including agriculture and navigation.
- The government emphasizes the need for water conservation and infrastructure improvements.
Widespread Drought Looms in England: Environmental Agency Warns of Critical Winter Rainfall Needs
The Environment Agency has released its Drought Prospects Report, warning that a significant portion of England will experience a drought next year if this winter does not see an increase in rainfall. The report comes as the country continues to grapple with prolonged dry weather and record heatwaves, making water conservation and preparedness critical.
Current Water Situation and Drought Projections
The current situation is dire, with England having seen below average rainfall for eight out of ten months in 2025. This has led to the country experiencing a record dry spring and continued heatwaves throughout the summer. The Met Office forecasts a higher-than-usual likelihood of dry conditions over the next three months, from November to January.
This could exacerbate drought conditions, potentially leading to hosepipe bans and significant pressures on the environment.
The Environment Agency has outlined three rainfall scenarios: with average winter rainfall, a dry winter, and a very dry winter. Each scenario predicts different levels of drought severity across England. The report highlights that without sufficient rainfall, most of England would face widespread impacts by spring 2026, including reduced water for irrigation, potential hosepipe bans, and significant risks to wildlife.
Government Response and Long-Term Planning
The government is taking steps to address the potential drought. Water Minister Emma Hardy MP emphasized the need for continued collaboration between sectors to maintain supplies and ensure public safety. She noted that climate change will lead to more frequent, severe droughts and flooding in the future.
To mitigate these risks, the government is investing in infrastructure improvements such as building nine new reservoirs and reducing water leakage through modern pipes. These measures aim to enhance England’s long-term water resilience and prepare for future challenges.
Public and Industry Actions
The Environment Agency is urging the public to continue using water wisely this winter, even if it rains. Helen Wakeham, Director of Water at the Environment Agency, stated: “There will be a drought next year, unless we get sustained rainfall through the winter. The severity of that drought will depend both on the weather and the actions we take over winter following this very dry year.”
For businesses and farmers, the report recommends adjusting cropping patterns to include more drought-tolerant crops, filling reservoirs as soon as possible, and sharing water rights where feasible.
Additionally, water companies are advised to engage customers in reducing water usage, reduce leakage, prepare for cold snaps that can cause pipe bursts, identify new sources of water, and accelerate water-saving schemes.
Expert insights from the Met Office’s Will Lang highlight the variability of rainfall patterns. While it is not possible to definitively forecast weather three months ahead, a more average three-month period for rainfall remains the most likely scenario. However, some areas may see less rainfall than others, potentially exacerbating long-standing dry conditions.
Conclusion
The upcoming winter in England is crucial for determining whether a widespread drought will occur next year. The government and various stakeholders are working together to prepare for potential water shortages, while also encouraging the public to play their part in conserving water resources. As climate change continues to pose challenges, the resilience of England’s water supply remains under scrutiny.
