Key Highlights
- The Broncos lead the AFC with a 96% chance of making the playoffs.
- The Patriots have the highest playoff probability at 97%, despite facing tougher opponents in Week 12.
- The Colts’ playoff chances are significantly lower, standing at just 85% if they lose their upcoming game.
- Chicago’s Bears are in contention for a first-round bye with a 59% chance of making the playoffs.
NFL Playoffs: Postseason Probabilities Enter Week 12, 2025 Season
As we enter Week 12 of the 2025 NFL regular season, the playoff picture is tightening for both conferences. The latest update from Next Gen Stats provides detailed estimates on each team’s chances of making the playoffs, dynamically updated every five minutes during live games.
AFC Playoff Probabilities
The Broncos (9-2) have maintained their lead with a 96% chance of advancing to the postseason. However, they face tougher opponents for the remainder of the season than the Patriots (9-2), who currently sit at 97%. The Patriots have an excellent opportunity to improve their road record and potentially leapfrog the Broncos into the top spot.
The Colts (8-2) are still in contention but their playoff leverage is significant.
A loss could reduce their chances of making it to the playoffs from 90% to just 21%. Meanwhile, the Steelers (6-4) have a slim 39% chance of securing a playoff berth.
NFC Playoff Probabilities
In the NFC, the Eagles (8-2) maintain their lead with a 99% probability. The Rams (8-2) are right behind at 99%, while the Bears (7-3) have a more modest 59%. The Buccaneers (6-4), Seahawks (7-3), and Packers (6-3-1) round out the top five, each with significant playoff probabilities.
The Bears’ resurgence has put them in contention for a first-round bye. With a win against the Steelers this week and strong performances from their division rivals, Chicago could potentially lead the entire conference by season’s end.
Bubble Teams and Fringe Contenders
Teams like the Texans (5-5), Chiefs (5-5), Ravens (5-5) in the AFC, and Lions (6-4) and Panthers (6-5) in the NFC are on the playoff bubble. The Chiefs’ recent struggles have dropped their probability to 52%, while the Ravens still hold a notable 77%. In the NFC, the Lions have a strong 74% chance of making the playoffs.
For the Dolphins (4-7) in the AFC and Cowboys (4-5-1), Vikings (4-6), Falcons (3-7), Commanders (3-8), Saints (2-8), and Giants (2-9) in the NFC, their playoff chances are slim. The Giants’ absence from any simulations highlights how challenging it will be for them to secure a playoff berth.
Divisional Standings
In the AFC East, the Patriots have a commanding lead with 66% probability of securing the division title. The Bills (7-3) are close behind at 34%. Other teams like the Dolphins and Jets face steep challenges as their playoff probabilities dip below 1%.
The Bears’ resurgence in the NFC North has put them on track to secure a first-round bye, although they still have significant hurdles.
Their next game against the Steelers will be crucial for their playoff chances.
As we move into Week 12, every game becomes critical for teams vying for playoff spots. The Next Gen Stats model provides valuable insights into each team’s prospects, but ultimately it is on-field performance that will determine who makes the cut for the postseason.
