Key Highlights
- A new NBC News poll shows Democrats have an early lead in the battle for control of Congress a year before the 2026 midterms.
- About two-thirds of voters say President Donald Trump has not lived up to their expectations on the economy and cost of living.
- The Democratic Party continues to suffer from low ratings, but Democrats are more enthusiastic about the upcoming elections than Republicans.
- A majority of voters blame both parties for the ongoing government shutdown, with a plurality supporting opposition to President Trump’s policies.
Election Poll: Democrats Gain Ground as Voters Criticize Trump
In a critical development ahead of next year’s midterm elections, a new national NBC News poll reveals that Democrats are gaining an early advantage over Republicans. The survey, conducted from October 24-28, indicates that around two-thirds of registered voters believe President Donald Trump has not met their expectations on key issues such as the economy and cost of living.
The findings come at a time when the government remains in a protracted shutdown, with a majority of respondents (52%) blaming both Democrats and Republicans for the impasse. However, Democrats are leading Republicans by 8 points, 50%-42%, on the congressional ballot—a margin that has grown from a negligible 1-point edge in March.
Voter Discontent and Political Enthusiasm
According to the poll, voter dissatisfaction with the status quo is evident. Jeff Horwitt, a Democratic pollster at Hart Research Associates, notes, “This is an electorate that remains deeply unhappy with the status quo.” Despite low ratings for the Democratic Party (28% positive), Democrats are showing higher enthusiasm levels heading into the 2026 elections.
Asked to rate their interest in the upcoming elections on a scale of 1 to 10, 66% of voters responded with a 9 or 10. Democrats exhibited even greater interest, with 74% rating their engagement as high, compared to 67% of Republicans and 50% of independents.
Key Issues and Political Divides
The poll underscores the importance of economic issues for voters. Around two-thirds of registered voters say Trump and his administration have fallen short on economic expectations, particularly regarding the cost of living (66%), looking out for the middle class (65%), and overall economic performance (63%). These sentiments echo historical trends observed during the Obama presidency.
On other key issues, Republicans retain significant advantages.
A majority of voters believe Trump has handled border security better than Democrats (+31 points) and crime more effectively (+22 points). However, Democrats have made gains on protecting constitutional rights (8-point edge) and democracy (11-point edge).
Government Shutdown and Public Sentiment
The ongoing government shutdown is also a significant factor. A majority of voters still hold negative views of both parties, with 54% disapproving of the Trump administration’s use of federal agents and National Guard troops to address crime and immigration issues.
Despite these challenges, the poll suggests that Trump remains a pivotal figure in shaping voter behavior for the midterms. With 70% of voters wanting their vote to send a message about support or opposition to the president, Democrats face an uphill battle but also an opportunity to capitalize on public dissatisfaction with his policies.
As the election approaches, both parties will need to navigate these complex dynamics while addressing voter concerns and expectations. The upcoming midterms could be shaped by the legacy of Trump’s presidency and the economic realities facing American families.
