Key Highlights
- Russia and Ukraine are close to reaching a peace deal but face “thorny” issues.
- Main sticking points include the fate of Ukrainian territory in Donbas and the management of Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant.
- Both leaders show little trust, complicating negotiations.
- A Ukrainian referendum may be necessary for any agreement to gain legitimacy.
The ‘Thorny’ Issues Threatening a Russia-Ukraine Peace Deal
Russia and Ukraine are at the cusp of a historic peace deal that could end nearly four years of full-scale war. However, significant obstacles remain, with two main issues standing in the way: the fate of Ukrainian territory in Donbas and the management of Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant.
The Contested Landscapes of Donbas
Ukraine’s industrial heartland, particularly in the eastern regions of Donetsk and Luhansk (Donbas), is a central point of contention. Vladimir Putin demands the whole of Ukraine’s industrial Donbas, while Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has offered a compromise.
According to Zelensky, Russian forces occupy most of the Luhansk region but control less than 75% of Donetsk. Zelensky argues that withdrawing from these areas is not an option, citing both legal and humanitarian reasons: “We can’t just withdraw; it’s out of our law,” he states. “People live there, 300,000 people… We can’t lose those people.”
Zelensky proposes a demilitarized or free economic zone in the area, to be policed by international forces if both sides pull back an equal distance from their current positions.
The Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Plant: A Critical Issue
Since March 2022, Russia has occupied Europe’s largest nuclear plant at Enerhodar. Despite being in cold shutdown mode for over three years, the six reactors of the Zaporizhzhia plant are managed by Russian troops and considered essential to regional safety.
The US proposal suggests joint management between Russia and Ukraine, with potential American oversight. However, Ukraine is wary of this arrangement, given Russia’s track record. The Ukrainian leader has stated that any compromise would require an unprecedented level of trust between two neighboring states, which currently does not exist.
A Lack of Mutual Trust
The absence of mutual trust between the leaders of Russia and Ukraine is a significant barrier to progress. President Zelensky emphasized this point during his recent comments: “I don’t trust Russians and… I don’t trust Putin, and he doesn’t want success for Ukraine,” he said.
Similarly, Putin has accused Ukrainian forces of targeting drones at his residence in the Novgorod region, although no evidence was provided. Ukraine denies any involvement and believes this is a pretext for further attacks on government buildings in Kyiv.
Other Sticking Points
Besides these two main issues, other sticking points include security guarantees from the US and European leaders, maintenance of an 800,000-strong Ukrainian military, financial contributions to Ukraine’s war efforts estimated at $800 billion, Russia’s rejection of Ukraine joining NATO, and potential obstacles in Ukraine’s bid for EU membership.
Adding another layer of complexity is the need for a referendum on any deal. Zelensky believes such a vote would be necessary to gain legitimacy: “A referendum is the way to accept it or not accept it,” he stated.
The Kremlin, however, argues that a temporary ceasefire would only prolong the conflict and lead to renewed hostilities. President Trump has acknowledged Putin’s position but emphasized the difficulty in resolving these thorny issues without trust between the two nations.
Conclusion
A Russia-Ukraine peace deal is within reach but faces significant challenges, particularly regarding territory and nuclear plant management. The lack of mutual trust between the leaders adds to the complexity, making any agreement difficult to achieve. Despite these obstacles, both sides continue to engage in negotiations, hoping for a lasting resolution to end this prolonged conflict.
