Key Highlights
- The Met Office has issued an amber warning for heavy rain and potential flooding in south Wales.
- Nearly a month’s worth of rain could fall onto already saturated ground following November’s above-average rainfall.
- Multiple yellow warnings are in force across the UK, with some areas expecting between 20 to 40mm of rain.
- Rail services have been disrupted due to poor weather conditions, including train cancellations and rerouting.
UK Weather: Amber Warning for Heavy Rain and Flooding in South Wales
Weather warnings issued as heavy rain hits the UK, with flooding expected. An amber severe weather warning from the Met Office is currently active across south Wales, while multiple yellow warnings are in effect for western areas of the country.
Near-Saturated Ground and Forecasted Rainfall
Nearly a month’s worth of rain could fall onto already very saturated ground following above-average rainfall throughout November. The Met Office has warned that between 20 to 40mm (0.8 and 1.6 inches) of rain is expected in south Wales, with some south-western facing hills seeing nearer to 120mm (4.7 inches).
The average rainfall for south Wales and south-west England for the whole of December is typically 152mm (6 inches). This upcoming deluge could result in extensive flooding along with disruption on the road and rail network, loss of power, and communities potentially cut off.
Impact on Rail Services
Poor weather has affected some train services. According to reports, there have been disruptions on the ScotRail route between Glasgow Central and Kilmarnock and Carlisle, where service is expected to remain disrupted until 09:00 on Tuesday.
In Wales, rail replacement buses are running after train services were suspended on the Conwy Valley and Heart of Wales line, including between Llandudno and Blaenau Ffestiniog, and Swansea and Shrewsbury. The Environment Agency (EA) and Natural Resources Wales (NRW) have issued flood warnings in certain areas.
EA spokespersons emphasized: “We urge people not to drive through flood water – it is often deeper than it looks, and just 30cm (1 foot) of flowing water can float a car.”
Historical Context: Record Wet November
November has been exceptionally wet overall, particularly in England and Wales. Data released from the Met Office Hadley Centre shows that it was the wettest month of 2025 so far, recording rainfall that was 31% above average.
In parts of eastern England, some weather stations have recorded their highest November rainfall on record. Bridlington, Yorkshire, has had nearly three times the normal rainfall with 180mm (7 inches) compared to an average of 66mm (2.6 inches).
Other parts of East Yorkshire and Lincolnshire have received more than double their normal rainfall, also recording the wettest November in history.
Autumn has been the only season this year to record above-average rainfall. The UK as a whole saw 20% more rain than the long-term meteorological average, with Northern Ireland and Wales seeing significantly more.
Prediction for Coming Days
Tonight, except for northern Scotland, the rain is expected to move away, and winds will ease, leaving clear spells and showers. Tuesday and Wednesday will bring drier, brighter, and less windy weather with sunny spells and scattered showers. Most of these showers will be in the south and west.
Further rain is anticipated later in the week as the amber warning for south Wales comes to an end at 21:00 GMT on Monday.
